Hello Everyone, Its been a while. Just thought I would put up a post updating on things. I have quit my day job in IT and am now a full time trader. Not doing too bad considering all things. I am associated with a hedge fund at the moment with a plan of ...

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  1. New blog
  2. Update
  3. Quick Update and FLD Projection - 6/30
  4. June 24th - Update
  5. Update - 4/22
  6. More Recent Articles

New blog

Hello Everyone,

Its been a while. Just thought I would put up a post updating on things. I have quit my day job in IT and am now a full time trader. Not doing too bad considering all things. I am associated with a hedge fund at the moment with a plan of starting something of my own in the not too distant future.

I dont trade India anymore. Fully US right now. My focus is on Stocks and Gold. Nowadays I use options more extensively to control risk. Anyhow, this is my new blog below. Just wanted to start something new and anyhow this site's name doesnt suit my purpose at the moment. Visit if you are interested but remember I dont trade India anymore though I might trade some emerging market ETFs at times. The site is meant to be more of a daily trading journal for me nowadays.




A quick update. I exited longs last week at around 5400 and above. A gain of around 8% on a portfolio of 40L. Not great...but not bad considering it was an easy trade/no daytrading/ easy just sitting on it for few months.

Why? Because I expect the 40week low after 4 weeks. It should come in around beginning of October.
We should have a bounce back or rally after that.

After that the next major low - the 80 week and likely 4.5yr low comes in around May/June next year.

So a period of having to be cautious. Maybe we will get a generational buy like Oct 2008 next year sometime. However price need not go very low as all big bears are expecting. Wait and watch. Right now I am fully out of market but waiting to see how the 40 week low comes about to see if I should buy for a 2-3 month rally.

I may not post any longer here :) Sorry just too much going on nowadays.

All the best to all.


Quick Update and FLD Projection - 6/30

Quick update on current cyclic view. 20 week low is confirmed. Also 20 week FLD is crossed giving us a projection of around 5700 in this 20 week cycle. We need to wait and see if it will be achieved. It was a big breakout of sorts on Friday. Could just be the game changer bulls were looking for.

Sachin, generally I dont like doing stock cycles because it gets skewed up. Any how here is the SBI cycle phasing. Looks ok enough however I am not very happy with it :) I prefer to focus on index and then go top down from there. Also stock data will have issues with it most of the time. If you see the chart closely you will understand what I mean.

Not updating portfolio today.I will do in around 2 weeks from now. Its now around 7% up. I will do some rebalancing next week on it.


June 24th - Update

Hello Folks,
Been a while. Since I am not trading the markets anymore - Instead operating on a much longer term timeframe, I dont feel the need to constantly watch or worry about the markets anymore :) Its a good thing. So because of this, did not feel like updating for some time. But I think now its time to put up my latest view.
So here goes:

As I mentioned some time back, weakness was expected into June end as we moved into the 20 week low. I think we got it and now we are climbing out of it. So this 20week low was the first major low after the 80 week low in Dec. So after this, the 40 week low may be sometime in October only. We might have a good but choppy advance with dips ofcourse until the 40 week peaks. Lets see how it turns out. Hurst view chart below.
One very weird thing is that the US market cycles have diverged from the Indian one. No longer in sync. Means US is now doing the 40week low but we are working with the 20 week low. Interesting.

Next a normal chart look.Weekly is still on buy with SL of 4770. It came very close to giving a sell but just held on. Chart looks bullish on an intermediate timeframe. I will hold my portfolio until I get a weekly sell.

Portfolio screenshot. Small differences. Got rid of several non performers. Added to performers. And I guess added in VENKEYS as a new stock.

As a result of cutting losses - its a 1 lakh loss. So the profit you see of 1.3lakh is in effect 30K only. Just clearing this lest anyone thinks I am misrepresenting anything!

Not very great I know....but then considering I started buying at 5350 odd, I think ok. And we may just may be on a launching pad here. Lets wait and watch.


Update - 4/22

Stock portfolio as requested by few readers. This was bought at around 2nd week of March or so. And then kept on adding until last week. The point to note is Index has actually moved down since I started buying but portfolio as as whole has moved up. Presented without bias. Presented as taken from my portfolio tracker.

You might wonder why I have so many stocks in my portfolio here. I have explained it before but its simple. When I start, I have a big number but then I cull it down over time. What doesnt perform gets thrown out and whatever performed the best gets added to many times over every single week. If you see the allocation amounts you can understand what I am talking about. I study the charts weekly to make a decision on this. But I dont spend more than few hours a week every week. So its nice and easy and fits my work schedule right now. Ok I wont say nice and easy but it is very comfortable now for me to do this. I love it and am feeling at peace with the market. And if I can make some 25-35% from the market yearly consistently..Consistently being the key word..then I am happy..more than Happy. And I have tried to track this method back in time..there have been years where returns of more than 100% have been attained. Ofcourse not possible every year but once in 3-5 years such a year will come and thats when portfolios like this outperform the market many many times over. Lets track this method out in real time over next several months/years..As long as I am able to actively post.

Coming to market views. Nowadays since the weekly is on a buy, I dont care too much about trying to predict day to day moves. I am buying all dips looking for the next big bull market to unfold. I expect there will be some more dips going forward maybe until May end time frame. This is where a major cluster of lows is expected. I will post a detailed update later. I will try and make a point to post weekly from now on. Atleast a snapshot of my portfolio so you know how it looks. The funny thing is before the Friday flash crash, this portfolio was almost 8% up!. That certainly took its toll. But I dont think the BULL is done yet contrary to all the popular views and doom and gloom out there today.

More Later.


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