Yesterday's business suffered from low merchandise productivity. Customers liked the merchandise less than the year prior. The marketing department continued to spend money finding new/reactivated buyers in an effort to keep the business steady. It's ...
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Kevin Hillstrom: MineThatData

Quiz Week: Question #3

Yesterday's business suffered from low merchandise productivity. Customers liked the merchandise less than the year prior. The marketing department continued to spend money finding new/reactivated buyers in an effort to keep the business steady. It's really important for marketing to do what can be done when customers simply don't like the merchandise being offered.

Ok, today we're going to look at two different dimensions within comp segment performance. Can you tell me how Management decided to respond to what was happening within this business?


Comp Segment: Items Selling At/Above Their Historical Average Price Point.
  • Sep: -27%.
  • Aug: -24%.
  • Jul: -22%.
  • Jun: -12%..
  • May: -17%.
  • Apr: -13%.

Comp Segment: Items Selling Below Their Historical Average Price Point.
  • Sep: +33%.
  • Aug: +29%.
  • Jul: +25%.
  • Jun: -10%.
  • May: -11%.
  • Apr: -10%.

        
 

Quiz Week: Question #2

Yesterday we explored a business where the marketing department elected to cut back on customer acquisition. We can easily detect this issue by looking at comp segment results (which were consistently positive). When comp segment results are positive and new/reactivated comps have a shift in performance at a specific point of time, we look to the marketing team ... because their change in marketing investment caused the business challenge observed.


Here is today's quiz question: What is wrong with this business?


Comp New/Reactivated Buyer Counts:
  • Sep: -3%.
  • Aug: -5%.
  • Jul: +2%.
  • Jun: - 1%.
  • May: +3%.
  • Apr: +4%.

Comp Segment (Those With Exactly Two Purchases In The Past Year) Results.
  • Sep: -8%.
  • Aug: -7%.
  • Jul: -9%.
  • Jun: -6%.
  • May: -9%.
  • Apr: -8%.

        
 

Quiz Week: Question #1

This week we're going to cover comp segment results that frequently arise in my work. Your job is to diagnose the reason why the business is succeeding or failing.



Question #1: Here are comp new/reactivated comps, and comp segment results ... for the past six months. What is the likely cause of this business not meeting expectations.

Comp New/Reactivated Buyer Counts:
  • Sep: -22%.
  • Aug: -18%.
  • Jul: -30%.
  • Jun: +13%.
  • May: +11%.
  • Apr: +8%.

Comp Segment (Those With Exactly Two Purchases In The Past Year) Results.
  • Sep: +6%.
  • Aug: +8%.
  • Jul: +5%.
  • Jun: +7%.
  • May: +3%.
  • Apr: +9%.

Based on what you see here, what is the reason this business did not meet expectations in recent months? What would cause a business to exhibit the comp new/reactivated buyer and comp segment results you see here? What would you do to fix the problem?

        
 

8%

Here's a gem.



I've been working in corporate America for more than thirty-eight years. The number of blank stares I've received when suggesting an A/B test when the person on the other side of the conversation is a ROAS believer ... well, it's a staggering number of blank stares!

A/B tests are humbling. They force you to address your personal marketing belief system. It's been my experience that not many professionals want to address their personal marketing belief system.

        
 

60%

In sports, the trend is moving toward building small stadiums. Colorado State comes to mind a few years ago. Northwestern this year, building a 35,000 seat stadium. Instead of probably not selling an inexpensive seat four thousand feet above the field, premium seats with premium experiences are sold at premium prices. Five thousand highly enthusiastic and/or wealthy individuals pay a ton more, the remaining 30,000 pay more.

Similar things are happening in ecommerce. The "middle" of the customer file is simply disappearing, being replaced by either one-time buyers that the brand needs to generate a handsome profit on the acquisition transaction ... or ... loyal buyers are subsidizing the core business.

I've told you this many times ... I define a loyal buyer as somebody who has a 60% or greater chance of buying again in the next year. As we continue to lose all of the "middle" customers to Amazon, the loyal buyer audience becomes increasingly important, because without them there is no profit.

In sports, this audience gets premium experiences, given what they're paying.

In ecommerce?

If I had to make a prediction for the future, I'd predict that "somebody smart" will figure out how to give premium experiences to loyal buyers. Not points. Not discounts. Not BOGOs. Not free shipping. No. Somebody smart is going to figure out what the premium experiences are that are unique to your best customers. Amazon figured it out - you pre-spend just south of $200 a year and somebody delivers the solar yard lights you purchased at 8:58pm tonight by 7:00am the next morning. Oh, the premium experience also includes NFL football games and NBA basketball games and NASCAR and first-run television series and Pickleball TV.

That's what we are competing against.

Have your analytically minded guru score your customer file ... have her tell you how many customers you have that have a 60% or better chance of buying again next year ... have her do this quarterly for the past three years. Have her show you what is happening to your loyal customer base. Is it growing? Is it shrinking? Is it contracting faster than the rest of your twelve-month buyer file?

If your analyst won't perform the work, contact me (kevinh@minethatdata.com) and I'll do it for you. Figure out how many premium customers you have, figure out what you can do for them.