Kevin Hillstrom: MineThatData

Maybe the most important finding in the past week is that "virtually nobody" is repurchasing when acquired by "Beans: The Internet's Only Variety Store!", regardless of merchandise category. Discovering the fact is one thing. Communicating the fact is quite another thing. And sometimes, the communication results in a reshaping of the message I convey.

This is why I send "tidbits" in my projects ... the back-and-forth interaction is useful and helps shape the outcome of the project.

From: sloane.montgomery@beans.com
Sent: Monday, May 11, 2026 10:39 AM
To: Paisley Ingram <paisley.ingram@beans.com>
Subject: RE: FW: Repurchase Activity

        

I ran an analysis, measuring how much future value (demand/sales over the next twelve months) a customer will generate after being acquired within each merchandise category. If a category does a great job of bringing in new customers and those customers don't spend money in the future, well, we've got a problem.

Here's a summary table of what I learned.

Apparel Tops is a high-volume category, and fortunately it is a top-three category in terms of future value (NY Value).

Notice that most categories generate customers that buy from nearly two categories in the next year if the customer repurchases.

However ...

However, there is a problem in this table.

When a customer is acquired, regardless of category, the customer spends very little in the next year. Seasonal is worst ($6.40) ... Outside is best ($11.33).

In other words, there is very little customer loyalty associated with this brand. Newly acquired customers have a low chance of buying in the first year with the brand (between 14% and 18%), and if they buy the don't spend much ($46.00 to $63.00).

This is one of those moments when the Consultant realizes s/he is about to anger people. Yes, you can run a profitable business with a customer base that simply doesn't spend much, but it means everything regarding the p&l is dependent upon generating profit off of a first purchase.

Tomorrow, I'll share what the conversation looked like regarding exceptionally low future value metrics.

        

I'm writing this back on Sunday night.

Here are the two shows I just watched on YouTube.

• AI Wasn't Built for You.
• English Football is Absolutely Ridiculous.

        

At "Beans: The Internet's Only Variety Store" there is a legend ... that a broad assortment "holds the brand together".

It's been my opinion that Leadership is violating this "legend", assuming the legend is true.

So ... I performed a classic Factor Analysis to demonstrate categories that customers like to purchase from. If dots on the image below are close together, customers like to purchase from the categories "near each other" on the image. If categories are far apart, it means different customers prefer the categories.

Here's the image from the Factor Analysis.

There appear to be three reasons why customers buy from this brand.

1. Apparel Tops: We know this is a high-volume category, and it is all by itself meaning that many customers ONLY purchase Apparel Tops.
2. Home / Outside: There are clearly customers who view this brand as a Home / Outside brand. There's some bad news here ... some customers clearly come for Home / Outside, but a few weeks ago I showed you that Home decreased from $6.0 million to $2.9 million over four years. No bueno.
3. Everything Else: There are customers who view this brand as an eclectic mix of categories (the right/middle side of the image).

        

We talked about Apparel Tops yesterday. We've previously mentioned that Fashion is a dying category, largely because the merchandising team appears to be killing the category. How does customer response change when a category is being killed off?

Similar to Apparel Tops, most demand comes from new/reactivated category buyers (80%). Again, the marketer has to know this, because the marketing plan has to include a lot of $$$ and attention in awareness (organic social) and search (product listing ads). If the marketer doesn't acknowledge this fact and act upon it, well, the marketer is equally culpable with the merchant at killing off the category.

This likely applies to your business as well. Most of your categories offer products that largely appeal to new/reactivated buyers and/or prospects. A marketing department that does not understand this dynamic is a marketing department that sub-optimizes the potential of the category/business.

Ok, what have the merchandising team done with their assortment-contraction initiative?

Rebuy Rates over time.

• 12-Month Fashion Buyers = 2.0% to 3.0% to 2.8% to 1.5%.
• All Other 12-Month Buyers = 1.6% to 2.5% to 2.2% to 1.2%.