Kevin Hillstrom: MineThatData

This is the link about the Tennessee basketball coach ... yesterday's link was incorrect. Yay, errors!

        

I look to sports for parallels for my clients. I have to, because there are few business parallels to talk about. If somebody is truly doing something great, the greatness gets sanitized into "5 Tips For Cyber Monday Success (Number 3 Will Surprise You)". No company is going to share that Lucy in Marketing is doing amazing things. In fact, "Lucy" will have to get a job somewhere else because "Lucy" will never be compensated fairly for her accomplishments ... and that means Lucy won't be compensated fairly at her next job, either. Compensation, unfortunately, is tied to being a CEO or C-Level executive, and Lucy will be told that she's "not ready" for that ... aka, the company doesn't want to compensate her for her contributions. (bonus points if you can see what AI messed up in the image of Lucy I asked AI to draw).

Wow, where did all of that come from?

It's different in sports. If you do a good job at a smaller University, bigger Universities come calling, because everybody can see the outcome (wins) of your efforts. In business, nobody can see what Lucy accomplished. In sports, people actually want to learn more about what somebody did to become successful, oftentimes the prescription for success is shared.

I find myself looking for business parallels in sports. I frequently look for people in sports who "do things differently", who then have success, who are criticized for their success because their success doesn't align with "best practices".

Until he passed, I so enjoyed reading about Mike Leach. Yeah, he had a scandal or two. But he also did things differently, and he constantly won at places where coaches don't usually win. Do you want to read some random thoughts from the man? Try this (click here).

Which brings me to Kim Caldwell (click here). The Women's College Basketball Coach at Tennessee. Imagine being in your mid-30s, coaching at the school that Pat Summitt made famous? Imagine having just one year of D1 coaching experience under your belt?

I adore stories like this!

I adore them because I get to meet people like this in my work. They're flying under the radar, it's easy to see their greatness, even at a time when their own company likely doesn't see it. It's easy to look at "Lucy" and imagine her running a business in twenty years ... though she should probably be running a business within five years.

There are so many brilliant people working in ecommerce. We need to give them the kind of chance that Tennessee gave Kim Caldwell.

The future is so bright! Young leaders are comin', folks!

        

Look, it isn't easy to be a merchant. You're always wrong. Business success ultimately rests on your shoulders. Sure, the trade journalists and vendors claim that "SEAMLESS PAYMENTS" are the key to Q4 success. They are wrong. Horribly wrong. Businesses that sell stuff that customers want know the key to success.

However ... merchants don't have to behave in a chaotic manner.

I see merchant chaos all the time in my Comp Segment analytics.

I look at new merchandise comps and existing merchandise comps.

The two tables are filled with chaos. New Merchandise ... look at October / November / December ... big comp segment gains in new merchandise, followed by five consecutive months of new merchandise declines. Somebody made big bets for "Holiday" and then had a poor plan for Spring. Chaos.

Existing Merchandise ... we see seven consecutive months of losses, five of the months feature double-digit declines. That's a problem! And then we see two straight months of huge gains, on top of acceptable performance the year prior. Chaos!

I'll take the data a step further ... analyzing comps for items selling at/above their historical average price point and for items selling below their historical average price point (i.e. discounting).

Why did existing merchandise comps perform well? Because of discounts/promotions ... April / May comps on discounted items was +21% and +33%. More chaos! Try planning the following April / May off of chaotic tactics.

You can see the signs of a sick business here.

• Full Priced Comps in the Past Year = -8%.
• Discounted Comps in the Past Year = +17%.
• Total Merch Comps in the Past Year = -1%.
• New/Reactivated Comps in the Past Year = +4%.

        

Back to our Rolling-Twelve Month Analysis.

There are times when a smart marketer is trying to overcome core merchandising issues. This analysis offers hints of a smart marketer.

• Total Demand is flat in the past year.
• Total Customers are up in the past year.
• Spend per Customer is down $3 in the past year.