Read the story about the Tucson, Arizona diner (click here). They charge less for pancakes with all sides than they charge for pancakes with one side. Think about that for your last-minute Cyber Monday bonanza. If you love to give stuff away and lose ...

 

Kevin Hillstrom: MineThatData - 5 new articles



Costs Less With All Sides Than With Just One Side


They charge less for pancakes with all sides than they charge for pancakes with one side.

Think about that for your last-minute Cyber Monday bonanza. If you love to give stuff away and lose money (which is what Cyber Monday is all about - losing money at scale), why not give away every item a customer adds-on to an order if the customer buys a high-profit-margin item?

         
 
 

In-Store Events ... Parties + Catalogs

Click on this story about Wal-Mart ... 20,000 Christmas parties with catalogs and stickers to point out preferred gifts.

Since so many of you love catalogs ... why not try something similar to this? Try something!


P.S.: When I mention low-cost / no-cost customer acquisition programs, so many of you (especially in traditional companies) grumble. Will you grumble if I tell you that a famous Venture Capitalist leverages the same strategy (click here)? By the way, go read the comments as the readers beat the living daylights out of each other and the author. Mind you, the author made millions investing in companies with low-cost / no-cost customer acquisition programs, but have at it! We've gotten to a point where average professionals who have not leveraged tactics beat up experienced professionals who have success, and for what?

         
 
 

Speaking of Customer Acquisition Programs


Half of you will find this frustrating, half will find it exciting ... but put your feelings aside and think about what you could do (in alignment with your "brand" of course) to gain attention, ok? 'Cause that's the point of this post. We need to find clever ways to find new customers ... we're not going to survive by constantly flooding Google and Facebook and a handful of other sources with cash.

So let's get clever, ok?


P.S.: Petco worked with Instacart in 2015 to deliver pet food in less than an hour and teamed up with DoorDash to provide delivery straight from Petco.com (click here).

         
 
 

Blue Apron Partnership

A reader forwarded this email from Blue Apron ... they're partnering with the Williams Sonoma family of brands.


It's time to pick quality partners, isn't it?

         
 
 

The MineThatData Forecasting Challenge: Solution #4

The fourth solution comes to us from the Daniel Wiltse. Click here to read the report.

Here is the three month result (rolling 12 month demand):
  • Month 80 = $81.9 million.
  • Month 81 = $81.3 million.
  • Month 82 = $80.5 million.
Here is his three month forecast:
  • Month 80 = $84.5 million.
  • Month 81 = $85.6 million.
  • Month 82 = $84.5 million.
Here is his "squared error":
  • 41.3 Trillion. Sisifo's Page Team maintains the lead and wins the competition!!

My goodness, this wasn't an easy exercise, was it?

Not at all.

Notice how hard it was to generate a forecast that showed declining sales!

Forecasting chops are sooooooo important. I'm not sure why we de-emphasize them in favor of being able to get 7 out of 10,000 to purchase from a personalized retargeting ad, but we don't always make good choices, do we?

Forecasting is where we need to spend time in 2018. We need to be able to see the future. If we can accurately see the future, we can react to the future.

This is one of the biggest reasons why I am focusing on Hillstrom's Optimizer in 2017-2018. We need to be able to see the future, and we need to be able to adjust our trajectory based on what our simulations tell us.

How about giving the four teams/individuals that participated some props for putting their guesses out there for all to see?


P.S.: On Twitter, Daniel submitted a visualization summarizing the results of a test. Here is what Daniel submitted - give it a peek and see if there's anything there you'd use to present the results of your tests, ok?




         
 
 
 
   
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