Kevin Hillstrom: MineThatData

Recall that I've collected the twelve analyses that you consistently get the most use out of ... these are the analytics you take action on, they are the analytics that you ask the most questions about on video conferences.

We'll start with the Life Table. The Life Table measures how customers convert from a first purchase to a second purchase ... 2nd to 3rd purchase ... 3rd to 4th purchase ... 4th to 5th purchase.

It can be hard to interpret a nerdy table ... so let's look at a graph that measures when this brand (Beans - The Internet's Only Variety Store) converts a first-time buyer to a second purchase. Tell me what you observe.

Do you see the problem?

I sure do!

Anytime incremental monthly rebuy rates (i.e. chance of buying in month six given the customer has not purchased in months 0/1/2/3/4/5) dips below 1.0%, the customer is unresponsive/dormant.

When does a first-time buyer become unresponsive?

• Three Months After a First Purchase!

        

... as these customers love REI.

        

A podcaster asked what my most popular projects are?

Interestingly, a look back at the work I've performed over the past three years showed a series of individual analytics within projects that clients consistently responded positively to. There were close to a dozen individual "pieces" of projects that professionals enjoyed.

Which got me thinking ...

... what if I combined the most popular stuff y'all respond to, and create one project out of all of it?

Let's do that!!

My Top 12:

• My Elite Program Analytics that I run for Elite Program Subscribers 3x/year.
• Life Table Analysis that shows the path your customers follow from a first purchase to loyal status.
• Life Cycle Analysis - illustrating what your first-time buyers purchase vs. what average / loyal customers evolve into from a merch/channel standpoint.
• Class-Of Reporting (most popular), demonstrating potential missteps in your merchandise assortment strategy over time. This analysis consistently provides the most discussion in my video conferences.
• Primary / Secondary Merchandise Categories - I'll explain the categories that run your customer ecosystem. Each brand has 1-2 categories that either attract new customers or become that "gravity" that ties your loyal customers to your business. I cannot score all customers as normal within the scope of this project, but you'll understand what drives your business.
• Price Point Analysis - I will measure the impact that higher prices have on repurchase metrics and/or spend per repurchaser. Very relevant in the post-COVID / Tariff environment we operate in.
• New Customer Quality Analysis Over Time - Many ecommerce businesses went down the Paid Social rat hole and were left with a weakened customer file comprised of unresponsive customers. We'll figure out if that happened to your brand.
• 12 Month Future Spend For New Buyers by Channel/Season/Category - You won't get the scoring equations (that costs $$$) but you will learn which channels, which seasons, and which categories contribute to quality new customers.
• Reactivation Potential - I will describe whether your business should "lean into" customer reactivation as a meaningful growth opportunity. You won't receive the scoring models my clients usually receive, but you'll understand if you have customers willing to be reactivated.
• Five Year Demand Forecast (2nd most popular) - I will show you where your business is headed based on a segmentation of customers and prior repurchase activity.
• Multi-Year Marketing Budget Study - This high level analysis evaluates marketing spend by channel for the past three years, comparing your brand to a typical client. Are you over-spending, under-spending, or have what I'd call an "imbalanced spend" by channel?
• Mystery Analysis - Based on customer behavior, I will add one (1) analysis to the eleven outlined above. If you have merchandise problems, I'll draw into my Categories analysis. If you have loyalty problems, I'll dive into the Life Cycle analysis (etc).

        

Times change, folks.

Did you know that somebody at a catalog agency works on the Amazon Toy catalog?

It has to be a fascinating feeling ... for a quarter century you watched Amazon systematically consume an "industry". You watched, mostly helplessly, as catalog brand after catalog brand either went out of business, were rolled-up within umbrella companies, or reduced circulation to the point of not even being a catalog brand anymore. Your agency competitors contracted or went out of business.

Then it got worse.

Remember back in 2022 when the catalog brands that still existed couldn't even get paper? The VP from Midland Paper mentions here the 50% decline in catalogs in "recent years". My estimates suggest 80% of all circulated pages have been removed from commerce in the past twenty years.

Somehow you worked through all of that. And then you're given a new assignment. It's your job to work on the Amazon Toy catalog.

Jarring!

You've fought against the incessant encroachment of Amazon on catalogs for decades. Now you help them complete the task, helping Amazon further contribute to the contraction of what used to be an "industry".

Catalogs are alive at Amazon, and they're alive among Zombie Retailers like Saks.

We should expect this to happen. As costs soar out of control, the brands that can support catalogs are those with hyper-loyal customers, brands that could care less that costs to put catalogs in the mail increased roughly 25% over the past three years +/-.

Years ago I joked that in the future the only catalogs in the mail would come from Amazon, who would mail (literally) everybody because they were the only brand that could still afford to mail catalogs, the only brand that doesn't need to prove ROI.

My joke could come true.

Times change.

        

I watched a program on linear television (#gasp #oldschool #luddite). A pair of perfectly wonderful sisters were running a restaurant that was unprofitable. The sisters didn't want to change. They served gigantic meals at unrealistically low prices ... paired with ridiculous monthly rent, they were flying their plane into the side of the mountain.

Something had to give.

They had to serve less food.

They had to raise prices.

They had to reduce expenses (i.e. fewer people).

In other words, this restaurant needed to "rebuild". They were like the Arizona Cardinals, the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, the Utah Jazz, the Vancouver Canucks, the Wisconsin Badgers Football Team.

Our Country needs to rebuild. No need to go further.

A generation of ecommerce businesses (founded 1995 - 2015 ... think legacy brands like Stitch Fix) are ready to rebuild, if they haven't already begun to rebuild. They're like that house you built in 2011 ... it needs to be painted, floors need to be replaced, appliances don't work, bathrooms are tired. We know this is true when growth stops. We know this is true when merchandise productivity erodes. We know this is true when email marketing hasn't fundamentally changed post-COVID. We know this is true when somebody says "Facebook isn't delivering quality names".

My catalog clients? Forced to rebuild. It's like your Hall of Fame quarterback just retired, except in your case your paper / printing / postage partners keep increasing costs to the point where the discipline they love is ending because of their cost increases. You get to rebuild as a digital marketer.

Like the NFL Team rebuilding after losing a Hall of Fame Quarterback, it can be hard to understand "what" needs to be rebuilt. A great quarterback covers a multitude of sins. Now your defense is on the field more often. Your new quarterback holds onto the ball too long, making it look like the offensive line is bad. Are they bad?

If you are rebuilding, you likely need analytical guidance, so you can tell if your defense / offensive line / etc. is in need of fixing. Same thing in ecommerce. You have to know "where" your rebuilding efforts need to be emphasized.