Failed Expectations: Do Details Count? Zig-Zag Flips - Weekly Blog # 925
Mike Lipper’s Monday Morning Musings
Failed Expectations
Do Details Count? Zig-Zag Flips
Editors: Frank Harrison 1997-2018, Hylton Phillips-Page 2018
Was this the week that was?
Last week’s blog anticipated a ruling by the US Supreme
Court on the Presidential use of Executive Orders to impose tariffs on
countries and products. It was further expected that the President would use
substitute measures to accomplish similar goals if he loses the Supreme Court case.
Additionally, there was a belief that the government would be forced to repay the
existing tariffs to the American people (voters). The new tariffs would
probably cause some changes by foreign nations. None of this happened.
Instead, the major topic of conversation at the World
Economic Forum at Davos was Greenland. Discussions moved at lightening or Trump
speed from a military occupation to a not fully disclosed peaceful agreement
with NATO forces by the end of the week. The importance of these dramatic
changes reminds us of what may be topic one in developing future investment
strategies. All of this brief history shows how wrong we can be. What we missed
was the significant price level change that occurred this week.
Critical Price Changes
Starting with the least followed ECRI industrial price index,
which normally moves ploddingly. The index rose to 126.28 from the prior week’s
120.49. The jump raised the year-over-year gain to 6.58%, which is greater than
the various inflation measures the Fed and many others use. I would not be
surprised to see industrial buyers of products add this amount to their resale prices,
after adding an insurance amount to protect their profits against further
prices increases.
One explanation of ECRI prices can be found in the weekly
price chart in the weekend Wall Street Journal, which showed Natural Gas rising
+70.0% and Silver +14.57% for the week. Part of these increases could be for
increased use of these items in the normal course of business. However, I
suspect some of the increased demand comes from trading and/or gambling interests,
either on the long side or from covering short positions. The importance of the
last sentence is that the size of the trading and gambling sectors is growing,
and I believe it’s already quite large.
The third price increase impacts all of us in our daily
purchase of goods and services. It is the value of the dollar. On Friday the
16th of January the US dollar index was 99.395, one week later it was 97.599.
The President has threatened foreign countries if they sell US assets!! (I
personally believe this won’t happen, but it shows a sensitivity to the value
of the dollar, even though Trump and Xi have both advocated for a lower value of
their currencies as mercantilists.)
Warning
I have already indicated how wrong I can be. Please be
careful in developing your own investment strategy and make changes slowly, not
abruptly.
Did you miss my blog last week? Click here to read.
Mike
Lipper's Blog: Is This The Week That Ends Instability? - Weekly Blog # 924
Mike
Lipper's Blog: How Much Longer Can We Avoid Thinking About the Long-Term? -
Weekly Blog # 923 Mike
Lipper's Blog: Data May Be Signaling Change - Weekly Blog # 922
Did someone forward you this blog?
To receive Mike Lipper’s Blog each Monday morning, please
subscribe by emailing me directly at AML@Lipperadvising.com
Copyright © 2008 – 2024
A. Michael Lipper, CFA
All rights reserved.
Contact author for limited redistribution
permission. 
Is This The Week That Ends Instability? - Weekly Blog # 924
Mike
Lipper’s Monday Morning Musings
Is
This The Week That Ends Instability?
Editors:
Frank Harrison 1997-2018, Hylton Phillips-Page 2018
Preface
I believe it was Lenin who said there are decades when
nothing happens; and there are weeks when decades happen. Possibly, the
four-day trading week beginning this coming Tuesday is such a period. In both the
Financial Times and her podcast, Liz Ann Sonders of Charles Schwab* introduced the
concept of the period we are going through as an extended period of
instability. I am suggesting it is possible the beginning of the end of this
period may have begun.
*Shares held in in managed and personal accounts.
Fund Data Sets the Table
Whether one invests in mutual funds or not, one should
recognize that not only do many people invest in them, but more importantly,
many fund managers get their training at fund shops. Thus, one can get an
understanding of the institutional mind set by looking at fund data. In the
five years ended last Thursday, the London Stock Exchange Group published my
old firm’s weekly study of 105 equity related mutual fund peer-groups average
performances.
The average performance of S&P 500 Index funds was
14.05% compounded for the past five years.
There were only five peer group averages that were better: Precious
Metals Equity Funds +21.50%, Energy MLP Funds +20.79%, Commodities Precious
Metals Funds +18.75%, Natural Resources Funds +17.30%, and Global Natural
Resources Funds +16.05%. There were just
two better performing thematic categories, precious metals and energy. The
narrowness of performance leadership proves how difficult it was to pick
winners for the past five years. The leadership crown was indeed unstable.
Another way to identify the instability in economic data is
to examine the tails of the best and worst 2 items shown in Saturday’s WSJ
weekly price chart. The best was Silver +11.67% and the second best was the
KOPSI +5.55%. The second worst price performance was Financials -2.33%, which
was half as bad as Corn -4.71%, the worst performer. The gaps between the top
two leaders and laggards suggest concentration is at play.
Turning Points Possible Next Week
On Tuesday, probably in the late afternoon, SCOTUS (Supreme
Court of the US) is expected to announce its decision on the IEEPA tariff. The
President has said he is prepared for an unfavorable ruling and has substitute
measures in mind. At best this will be disruptive, and possibly inflationary.
The ECRI industrial price index, which is normally slow moving, rose to 120.49%
from the prior week’s level of 117.42%.
Markets are anticipating problems, either from Tariffs or
possibly Iran. Sixty-two percent of the stocks traded on the New York Stock
Exchange (NYSE) rose last week, while only fifty-three percent rose on the NASDAQ.
The NASDAQ trades more tech stocks and the shares of younger companies. Thus,
the junior exchange is likely to react more than the “Big Board” to news events.
Retail investors, when not gambling, are more active on the junior market. One
possible measure of this is the American Association of Individual Investors
(AAII) sample survey, which reported 49.5% bullish for the next six months, up
from 42.5% the prior week. What may be more significant is the 28.2% that were
bearish. Many professional traders believe “the public” is wrong at turning
points.
The Davos meeting begins Tuesday, with many political and
economic leaders present and chatting. One doesn’t know what will be discussed
and how meaningful the meetings will be.
Keep us Informed as to any Changes in Your Views.
Did you miss my blog last week? Click here to read.
Mike
Lipper's Blog: How Much Longer Can We Avoid Thinking About the Long-Term? -
Weekly Blog # 923
Mike
Lipper's Blog: Data May Be Signaling Change - Weekly Blog # 922
Mike
Lipper's Blog: Investment Time Horizon Should Pick How You Measure the Results
- Weekly Blog # 921
Did someone forward you this blog?
To receive Mike Lipper’s Blog each Monday morning, please
subscribe by emailing me directly at AML@Lipperadvising.com
Copyright © 2008 – 2024
A. Michael Lipper, CFA
All rights reserved.
Contact author for limited redistribution permission.
How Much Longer Can We Avoid Thinking About the Long-Term? - Weekly Blog # 923
Mike
Lipper’s Monday Morning Musings
How
Much Longer Can We Avoid
Thinking
About the Long-Term?
Editors:
Frank Harrison 1997-2018, Hylton Phillips-Page 2018
First Week 2026
Using the performance of equity mutual funds, it was a great
week with average gains of more than +2%. If repeated for each week of the year
it would produce returns of over 100%. Even the value of the US dollar rose a
bit during the week. That was the delusional news! What’s even worse, the
average commodity fund invested in gold and other precious metals rose +4.02%. Funds
owning stocks of gold and other precious metal mining companies gained +5.32%
on average through Thursday. The latter can suffer mining risks, labor strikes,
and raised taxes. Historically, gold has been a hedge against the value of a
currency, particularly the US dollar. There is also a small industrial market
for gold in the electronics market, which might be in the region of $1,000 an
ounce. How much demand for gold jewelry is really demand for a convenient way
to pass on its monetary value? I don’t know. Part of the demand for gold as a use
in the crypto world is not known by me. All told, I suspect over half of the
value of gold is as a substitute for the US dollar.
What Is The Value Of The US dollar?
Something is worth what someone is willing to pay for it.
Currently, it appears to be about $0.99 cents, up from $0.96 cents. However, the
critical question is its worth in the future. That appears to be what someone
is willing to pay for it, delivered today or on a specific date and quantity in
the future.
According to a paper prepared by the National Bureau of
Economic Research. Twenty-five years ago, people believed the US fiscal budget
looking forward 10 years would be $5.9 Billion, with all public debt paid off
by 2006. The readers of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act now project a 2054 debt
to GDP ratio of 199%, incorporating temporary provisions. Net interest payments
would rise to 6.3% from 3.2% today. (I don’t know how to impact these numbers
with the increase in gambling. In first
11 months of 2025, total sports gambling in New Jersey was $67 Billion. The
rise of non-securities backed gambling, particularly among the young, appears
to be on the rise.)
Why Should We Care?
Even with the increase in retail securities markets investing,
institutional investors set the prices of fixed income securities and many large-cap
stocks. Most money invested through 401k and similar retirement accounts are
invested in mutual funds or SMAs. Insurance companies, endowments, and other institutional
investors may increase their investment in foreign securities, which will
impact domestic stock prices. Both domestic and foreign controlled investors
may shift some of their investment focus if the dollar becomes weaker.
Leaders Increasingly Think Globally
Foreign leaders have increasingly thought globally in
determining their strategies. Our main adversaries, China, Russia, and North
Korea are strategists, whereas the US tends to view the world as tacticians through
domestic glasses and the next election time scale. Luckily, many of our
domestic commercial leaders are increasingly thinking strategically.
Strategies Going Forward
Going forward, we should recognize that the world is
changing at a rapid rate and we need to change with it. Old rules and
strategies will change. We must be careful.
Please share your thoughts.
Did you miss my blog last week? Click here to read.
Mike
Lipper's Blog: Data May Be Signaling Change - Weekly Blog # 922
Mike
Lipper's Blog: Investment Time Horizon Should Pick How You Measure the Results
- Weekly Blog # 921
Mike
Lipper's Blog: Tis the Season of Joy & Reflection - Weekly Blog # 920
Did someone forward you this blog?
To receive Mike Lipper’s Blog each Monday morning, please
subscribe by emailing me directly at AML@Lipperadvising.com
Copyright © 2008 – 2024
A. Michael Lipper, CFA
All rights reserved.
Contact author for limited redistribution permission.
Data May Be Signaling Change - Weekly Blog # 922
Mike Lipper’s Monday Morning Musings
Data May Be Signaling Change
Editors: Frank Harrison 1997-2018, Hylton Phillips-Page 2018
Preface
I came to my desk Saturday morning and was prepared to begin
writing this week’s blog. My thought pattern suggested we were quite possibly in
a pivot period, with market leadership shifting to foreign priced securities
priced substantially below “AI” securities. Then I paid attention to Bloomberg
television, which is on 24 hours a day. I was mesmerized by the news on the
raid on Caracas, the capital of Venezuela. The daring and skills involved were impressive
and the growing implications are disturbing.
Normally, I try to view everything from a global perspective,
as I believe almost all we do has roots in the global world. However, for this
week’s blog I am not going to deal with the longer-term implications of the
successful raid and capture of indicted criminals. It is too early to tell. I
expect these events will create global shadows which I will address in future
blogs. The world listens but does not necessarily follow the U.S
Pivoting to the Data
Last Two Weeks of 2025
Each of the last two trading weeks, including January 2nd,
have had only four trading days of relatively light trading volume. A disproportionate
number of trades were either tax motivated, or position statement driven.
Nevertheless, they share traits with many earlier days of December’s trading,
with more stocks sold on minus ticks than rising prices. It is worth noting
that the popular stock market indices generally rose a small amount. This
highlights the dichotomy in the market between what many believe are retail
driven indices and a broader, slower-moving institutional market. I am guessing
many retirement and other long-term institutions were relatively quiet in the
last part of 2025.
This institutional hesitation mirrors the large
corporations’ labor practices, where many companies spend considerable amounts training
new employees, which they consider assets. They are therefore reluctant to fire
many employees and are slow to hire new workers. Some believe in the “promise
of “AI”, where in the not-too-distant future companies will need less employees
to produce the same or more sales. Consequently, many employers are not hiring
new employees, other than critical replacements.
Typically, corporations begin investing new capital into
their retirement plans in January, be it pension or 401-k accounts. The
institutional advisory community has counted on this flow in the past. My
guess, it may be smaller this year. We will see.
Prices and Inflation
There were two lessons on prices in the Weekend Edition of
The Wall Street Journal, which measures 72 traded items each week. Only 24 prices
or one-third were up, and 48 prices were down. Are we peaking? The second lesson
from these data is that markets deal with both extreme momentary shortages and slower
moving prices, which are more common. One analytical technique I use to
differentiate them is to examine the top and bottom two prices. On the upside
is Comex Silver +142.34% and Platinum +127.57%. On the downside are Orange
Juice -58.75% and Cocoa -48.05%. I believe these four are special imbalances, as
the third extreme prices are the KOSPI composite +75.63% and the Argentine Peso
-28.96%. The gaps between the extremes and third ranking are large. Much smaller
but concerning nevertheless is the one-week industrial prices gain of +1.28% in
the ECRI weekly index, suggesting inflation is not under control.
The Key Link
If there were a single suggestion of a world view of the US
economy, it would be the value of the US dollar. The Financial Times headline “Dollar Is Wild Card in 2026”. This UK publication, now
owned by the Japanese newspaper/wire service giant, is a traditional critic of
the US. The value of the dollar is dependent on two factors, the value of the
other major currencies and the price of the dollar. In 2025, numerous foreign
markets have for the first time in many years appreciated more than the US.
Currencies, like securities, are priced at their perceived future value. Not
only is the US government spending more than it is earning through taxes and tariffs, but it’s also expected by many to continue to do so in the future. (Even if tariffs
bring in a lot of money, part of the receipts are expected to be paid to citizens
instead of being used to pay our debts.) In addition, both President Trump and
Chairman Yi have stated they would both like their currencies to decline. Some weakness
in the dollar may have been caused by individual and institutional investors selling
dollars to buy foreign securities.
What to Do?
Examine whether it is prudent to have 100% of your long-term
investment money in securities that are traded primarily in dollars? Is it time
to pivot?
Share your thoughts, please.
Did you miss my blog last week? Click here to read.
Mike
Lipper's Blog: Investment Time Horizon Should Pick How You Measure the Results
- Weekly Blog # 921
Mike
Lipper's Blog: Tis the Season of Joy & Reflection - Weekly Blog # 920
Mike
Lipper's Blog: Are Investors Seeing a Change? Politicos Are Not - Weekly Blog #
919
Did someone forward you this blog?
To receive Mike Lipper’s Blog each Monday morning, please
subscribe by emailing me directly at AML@Lipperadvising.com
Copyright © 2008 – 2024
A. Michael Lipper, CFA
All rights reserved.
Contact author for limited redistribution permission. 
Investment Time Horizon Should Pick How You Measure the Results - Weekly Blog # 921
Mike Lipper’s Monday Morning Musings
Investment Time Horizon Should Pick
How You Measure the Results
Editors: Frank
Harrison 1997-2018, Hylton Phillips-Page 2018
Current Situation
Billions of people invest directly or indirectly in US
securities markets, with each having somewhat different motivations and
thoughts about what they are doing. Since we don’t know these people and the
way they think, we simply group them into buckets. I have found the intended
investment period often defines how they invest and for what period.
My outlook is of someone who has served families and
institutions, and I tend to think long-term for them. As most money invested in
mutual funds is largely for retirement and most institutions are designed to
pay out their assets over an extended period of many years, they too have a long-term
time horizon. (Unfortunately, this focus on the long term does not come with a
knowledge of what the future will bring in terms of risks and rewards.)
The media concentrates on “news” and fills space with the current
chatter about the present and the next expected announcement of note. Most
security salespeople and money managers believe potential investors are
primarily interested in the present and that is the focus of their sales
pitches.
These two different focuses have led to two very different
market structures. The hyper action-oriented players dwell on any market
development that leads to a move in stock prices. They celebrate the percentage
gains of interim results and prognostications. Those who use securities to meet
future payments are concerned about anything that might reduce these payments
in terms of future purchasing power. A possible tell-tale signal of a threat is
the sale of securities by supposedly knowledgeable investors.
This is the tug of war between those seeking near-terms
rewards and those worrying about the loss of worth of some future payment. To
satisfy both camps the stock exchanges publish the volume of shares sold at
higher and lower prices and the number of issues which rose and fell each
trading day.
In the latest week there were only four trading days and one
of those was half a day. On the last day the volume of shares traded on the NYSE
was down by approximately 2/3rds and by approximately one half on the NASDAQ*.
(In the current market environment, I pay more attention to the NASDAQ, as it
has risen the most this year due to having more “Tech” companies, whose stock
prices are more volatile than those on “The Big Board”. On Monday the 4
indicators were larger for the NASDAQ and on Tuesday the NYSE saw better
results. This see-saw pattern has occurred frequently throughout the year.) For
the week, 65 % of NASDAQ stocks rose in price vs 61% for the NYSE.
*Client and personal accounts own shares in NASDAQ.
In terms of looking at the future there were two interesting
notices. The Conference Board Consumer Sentiment Survey was 89.1% vs 92.9% the prior
month. The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) saw a drop in bullish
sentiment for the next six months in their sample survey, dropping to 37.4%
from 44.1% the prior week.
Understanding the Measure
Most of the chatter about this change focused on the
percentage change from the period immediately prior. However, there is another
way to look at the results, the way an actuary would in determining the chance of
a certain event happening. This is done by reviewing the entire history of the statistical
sample, including any possible period where that event could reappear and at what
frequency. For example, one chance out of fifty years, or every 84 months, or
something similar. History traced through geological discoveries has recorded
cycles of expansions and contractions with some regularity. It is much easier
with regular barter or the development of money.
Said simply, when there is a shortage of supply over the
level of demand, prices go up. When there is more supply than demand, prices
drop. Climate also impacts agriculture, as does the effort of humans. The
supply of money was a recent concern, which has more recently shifted to concerns
about the supply of credit and certain natural resources. In all cases, it is
the imbalance of critical items which moves prices to a point of excess, which
causes a reversal.
Small reversals happen more frequently than large ones, often
occurring within a single presidential term. However, small reversals periodically
stretch over two or conceivably three terms. In trying to avoid or stop small
declines, the application of well-meaning changes can trigger bigger declines, which
we label depressions.
Addressing the economic hardships caused by the cost of fighting
WWI led to an extended period of debt expansion, which initially hurt the
farming communities. This led to the application of tariffs to protect small
banks which extended loans to over expanded farmers and farm equipment dealers
in critically important mid-western senate seats. Simultaneously, the public
became enamored with the use of credit in an already highly priced stock market.
The market crash of 1929 caused many people to lose money in
margin accounts, along with many of their brokers. The market reached a bottom
in 1931, but people were scared by what had happened. In 1932 they elected FDR
as President as a protector of the banks, and he closed all the banks in 1933 in
an attempt to restructure society. Even though FDR lost most of his battles
with the Constitution and the Courts, he initiated various government agencies
that mismanaged the economy until we entered WWII, which he helped start in
both the Pacific and Atlantic. The US recovered slowly after the war and subsequent
Korean Conflict, although some stocks listed on the NYSE did not reach their
1929 highs until the mid-1960s with the discounted dollar.
Semi Parallels Today
There has been an expansion of debt both at the federal and
individual level, with bankruptcies currently rising. At the same time, prudent
constraints on the financial community have been reduced or eliminated. Additionally,
we have an underequipped military, including Navy, Air, Space, and Coast Guard not
ready for a multi-front war.
Conclusion:
We don’t know when the next decline will happen, or if the depth
of the decline will morph into a depression. However, we should resist being fully
exposed to rising gains in the non-public market while we experience a stagnant
private economy. It is possible gains achieved in 2026 may be expensive in the
long run, so be careful.
Did you miss my blog last week? Click here to read.
Mike
Lipper's Blog: Tis the Season of Joy & Reflection - Weekly Blog # 920
Mike
Lipper's Blog: Are Investors Seeing a Change? Politicos Are Not - Weekly Blog #
919
Mike
Lipper's Blog: On The Way To Casualties & Eventually Riches - Weekly Blog #
918
Did someone forward you this blog?
To receive Mike Lipper’s Blog each Monday morning, please
subscribe by emailing me directly at AML@Lipperadvising.com
Copyright © 2008 – 2024
A. Michael Lipper, CFA
All rights reserved.
Contact author for limited redistribution permission.
|
