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Strategically, Time to Think Differently - Weekly Blog # 927

Mike Lipper’s Monday Morning Musings

Strategically, Time to Think Differently

Editors: Frank Harrison 1997-2018, Hylton Phillips-Page 2018

Warning: Almost No One Will Agree, Nevertheless Consider

My Burden: Hedging

After a market week of lots of good earnings and media pundit optimism, it’s time to worry. Individually, before we consider securities investments, we should consider our personal long-term investments. For most of our adult lives our two biggest investments are our homes and jobs. While we believe we know the numbers, we are wrong!

We fail to include in the analysis of our residence the true costs that come with the property over time. For instance, we do not include real estate taxes, either paid directly or included in rent payments. If we stay in our homes for ten years, in one place or more, the aggregate cost will probably equal the cost of buying initially. But that is not the actual cost of living in a home. That amount should also include the cost of local organizations we join, as well as the cost of any repairs and maintenance. Thus, the combined cost should be considered, as well as the planned next location, which likely represents a potentially large unhedged risk.

As large as the cost of home ownership is, it is hopefully smaller than the next risk. For most of us, our biggest risk throughout perhaps the first twenty years of our adult lives, is employment risk. If we work for one or multiple employers and we are not self-employed during most of our working years, our biggest risk is employment risk. We are living in a fast-changing economic world, where employers disappear as a result of business mistakes, technological change, badly executed mergers, and younger, smarter, better educated, and cheaper competitors.

We are Not Helpless

Over time, we can not only help ourselves but also accumulate sufficient capital to provide long-lasting wealth to cover our own lives and hopefully those of our loved ones too. This can be accomplished by regularly spending less than we make through our jobs and investments. Cyclicality is our enemy. As we move up in the commercial world an increasing portion of our wealth comes from accepting portions of compensation that have equity-like rewards and risks. The further you move up the economic ladder, the greater the rewards and risks. Additionally, the higher you go up the ladder, the more cyclical it becomes. Income fluctuates with sales and profits, but also due to changes in politics within the organization. This cyclicality should be hedged to the degree possible.

Selection of Investments is Critical

Picking good investments is always difficult. For the most protection, the primary goal should be seeking assets that hedge those investments generating the highest gain. I believe we are on the cusp of a period of major change, not the continuation of “happy talk” optimism. This past week there were dramatic headline changes of direction, but the market as measured by the S&P 500 barely returned to its prior high. Concurrently, the Economic Cyclical Research Institute (ECRI) industrial price indicator dropped to 122.27% from the prior week’s 131.20%. While this was an extremely happy reading of growing inflation, I suspect it was driven by natural gas prices plummeting -21.41% and diesel falling -4.79%. Far too many retail investors follow prices on the NYSE, where 39% of the stocks declined for the week. However, the better performing NASDAQ Composite saw 56% of its prices fall. Also, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) weekly sample survey showed the bullish outlook falling to +39.7% from +44.4% the prior week. In the real-world January produced the largest cut in jobs, which have been falling for 8 months.

Conclusion: One Should Hedge

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Mike Lipper's Blog: Is This The Week That Ends Instability? - Weekly Blog # 924

Mike Lipper's Blog: How Much Longer Can We Avoid Thinking About the Long-Term? - Weekly Blog # 923

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Mike Lipper’s Monday Mo...

Mike Lipper’s Monday Morning Musings

Do Current Prices Lead Future Markets?

Editors: Frank Harrison 1997-2018, Hylton Phillips-Page 2018

Lessons From the Weatherperson

With condolences to too many in the US and Europe this weekend, no snow came down in Summit, New Jersey today. The purpose of mentioning this is not to gloat, because we will have our share of bad weather in the future. The purpose is to remind all of the lack of certainty in predictions, and to remind all that the real value of weather-people is making professional investors look good!

I have one advantage in the securities analysis game, another title for predictions. My advantage is I learned analysis at the New York racetracks. The first thing was to read the situation, which included the conditions of each race and many other details. The purpose of this exercise was to eliminate races that were difficult to analyze. For example, younger horses with little to no experience, or a clear standout quoted at very small odds. Remember, my prime objective was to leave the track with more money than when I arrived, after expenses. A goal only a minority achieved each day. (This led to never wagering all on any given race and having enough money to get home. Thus, I am not fully committed in my current portfolio.)

The next task was to compare the records of the horses, which usually produced horses with the most wins or fastest times. This exercise normally produced a list with the smallest betting-odds, and they would generally be excluded because the payoffs were relatively small. So much so that they would not even cover prior or future losses. (This is like coming to a highly favored stock in a late market phase)

With all these eliminations, what is left? What I found at the track and later at my desk were bits of information in public view, suggesting that on a given day a horse could do well and beat the more popular favorite. (This was and still is my current hunting ground for investments.)

The Big Advantage

There is a big long-term advantage in selecting investments over picking horses at the track. When the day at the track is over, the game restarts the next time you enter the track. With investing in securities your investment progress passes through a number of phases. I find it easier to pick securities, which will have more up phases than down. The big advantage is that after an up phase there is more at risk than what you initially put in. If there are subsequent up phases, your returns are the product of your initial investment plus the return on other people’s money. A study of the returns of successful people captures this compounding impact.

Applying The Track’s Principles Today

Enthusiasm is the enemy of finding current bargains. Most long-term investors, if they don’t get punished by high expenses, taxes, and selling large portions of their wealth quickly, have a good record of growing capital. However, if they get sucked into the market when most are enthusiastic about its progress, they become victims when enthusiasm shifts. The greater the number of transactions the greater chance they will not only have poor returns but will lack the capital and the guts to buy when securities are cheap.

The 2026 Shift

One month is hardly conclusive that markets around the world are expecting a different game, but the S&P 600 Small Cap Index led most other US stock indices with a gain of +5.61% in January. (If that rate of monthly gains were to continue throughout the year, the annual gain would be over 100%)

By comparison, if a January S&P 500 Index gain of +1.45% continued for a year it would produce another double-digit return. The problem is that it results in a four-year period of double-digit returns. (I suspect the doubling of one of the small cap indices is more likely than a four-year period of double-digit gains in the S&P 500 Index. Goldman Sachs calculated that if only 1% of the capital invested in the S&P 500 moved to the S&P 600, it would raise the latter’s price by 37%.) For perspective, of the 105 Mutual fund peer group averages, only 8 were up double digits.

Now To The Real World

In the last 3 weeks the usually slow moving ECRI Industrial Price Index came alive with successive weekly readings of 131.20, 126.28, and 117.67. The gain over all of last year was +11.50%. The three biggest price-increases this week in The Wall Street Journal were Natural Gas +20.64%, ULSD (diesel fuel) +12.16%, and Crude +6.78%. (I wonder what the present Fed and the probable new Chairman after May will do.)

There are lot of other worrisome statics out there. In a recent report Michael Roberts listed some 17 economic return elements that are worth looking at. I have selected just a few of them for you to digest.

Healthcare and social services generated more than 100% of net payroll gains in 2025. Top decile earners now account for about 45% of total consumption. (These top decile earners won’t be the beneficiaries of the tax changes in ’26.)
Softer demand for luxury goods suggests financial stress is beginning to move up the ladder.
Layoffs have reached recessionary levels and wage growth continues to slow.
Creditors are increasingly unwilling to lend at historically low real yields.
A recent PWC survey of 4000 global CEOs found that confidence in revenue growth had fallen to a five-year low.

Next Two Years

Odds are, the next two years will be anything but smooth. The key to surviving this troubled period is maintaining capital in diverse financial and other assets. Gather as many resourceful people as possible into your circle. Stay alert and get comfortable with change. Lastly, share your thoughts with us.

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Mike Lipper's Blog: Failed Expectations: Do Details Count? Zig-Zag Flips - Weekly Blog # 925

Mike Lipper's Blog: Is This The Week That Ends Instability? - Weekly Blog # 924

Mike Lipper's Blog: How Much Longer Can We Avoid Thinking About the Long-Term? - Weekly Blog # 923

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A. Michael Lipper, CFA

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Failed Expectations: Do Details Count? Zig-Zag Flips - Weekly Blog # 925

Mike Lipper’s Monday Morning Musings

Failed Expectations

Do Details Count? Zig-Zag Flips

Editors: Frank Harrison 1997-2018, Hylton Phillips-Page 2018

Was this the week that was?

Last week’s blog anticipated a ruling by the US Supreme Court on the Presidential use of Executive Orders to impose tariffs on countries and products. It was further expected that the President would use substitute measures to accomplish similar goals if he loses the Supreme Court case. Additionally, there was a belief that the government would be forced to repay the existing tariffs to the American people (voters). The new tariffs would probably cause some changes by foreign nations. None of this happened.

Instead, the major topic of conversation at the World Economic Forum at Davos was Greenland. Discussions moved at lightening or Trump speed from a military occupation to a not fully disclosed peaceful agreement with NATO forces by the end of the week. The importance of these dramatic changes reminds us of what may be topic one in developing future investment strategies. All of this brief history shows how wrong we can be. What we missed was the significant price level change that occurred this week.

Critical Price Changes

Starting with the least followed ECRI industrial price index, which normally moves ploddingly. The index rose to 126.28 from the prior week’s 120.49. The jump raised the year-over-year gain to 6.58%, which is greater than the various inflation measures the Fed and many others use. I would not be surprised to see industrial buyers of products add this amount to their resale prices, after adding an insurance amount to protect their profits against further prices increases.

One explanation of ECRI prices can be found in the weekly price chart in the weekend Wall Street Journal, which showed Natural Gas rising +70.0% and Silver +14.57% for the week. Part of these increases could be for increased use of these items in the normal course of business. However, I suspect some of the increased demand comes from trading and/or gambling interests, either on the long side or from covering short positions. The importance of the last sentence is that the size of the trading and gambling sectors is growing, and I believe it’s already quite large.

The third price increase impacts all of us in our daily purchase of goods and services. It is the value of the dollar. On Friday the 16th of January the US dollar index was 99.395, one week later it was 97.599. The President has threatened foreign countries if they sell US assets!! (I personally believe this won’t happen, but it shows a sensitivity to the value of the dollar, even though Trump and Xi have both advocated for a lower value of their currencies as mercantilists.)

Warning

I have already indicated how wrong I can be. Please be careful in developing your own investment strategy and make changes slowly, not abruptly.

Did you miss my blog last week? Click here to read.

Mike Lipper's Blog: Is This The Week That Ends Instability? - Weekly Blog # 924

Mike Lipper's Blog: How Much Longer Can We Avoid Thinking About the Long-Term? - Weekly Blog # 923 Mike Lipper's Blog: Data May Be Signaling Change - Weekly Blog # 922

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Is This The Week That Ends Instability? - Weekly Blog # 924

Mike Lipper’s Monday Morning Musings

Is This The Week That Ends Instability?

Editors: Frank Harrison 1997-2018, Hylton Phillips-Page 2018

Preface

I believe it was Lenin who said there are decades when nothing happens; and there are weeks when decades happen. Possibly, the four-day trading week beginning this coming Tuesday is such a period. In both the Financial Times and her podcast, Liz Ann Sonders of Charles Schwab* introduced the concept of the period we are going through as an extended period of instability. I am suggesting it is possible the beginning of the end of this period may have begun.

*Shares held in in managed and personal accounts.

Fund Data Sets the Table

Whether one invests in mutual funds or not, one should recognize that not only do many people invest in them, but more importantly, many fund managers get their training at fund shops. Thus, one can get an understanding of the institutional mind set by looking at fund data. In the five years ended last Thursday, the London Stock Exchange Group published my old firm’s weekly study of 105 equity related mutual fund peer-groups average performances.

The average performance of S&P 500 Index funds was 14.05% compounded for the past five years. There were only five peer group averages that were better: Precious Metals Equity Funds +21.50%, Energy MLP Funds +20.79%, Commodities Precious Metals Funds +18.75%, Natural Resources Funds +17.30%, and Global Natural Resources Funds +16.05%. There were just two better performing thematic categories, precious metals and energy. The narrowness of performance leadership proves how difficult it was to pick winners for the past five years. The leadership crown was indeed unstable.

Another way to identify the instability in economic data is to examine the tails of the best and worst 2 items shown in Saturday’s WSJ weekly price chart. The best was Silver +11.67% and the second best was the KOPSI +5.55%. The second worst price performance was Financials -2.33%, which was half as bad as Corn -4.71%, the worst performer. The gaps between the top two leaders and laggards suggest concentration is at play.

Turning Points Possible Next Week

On Tuesday, probably in the late afternoon, SCOTUS (Supreme Court of the US) is expected to announce its decision on the IEEPA tariff. The President has said he is prepared for an unfavorable ruling and has substitute measures in mind. At best this will be disruptive, and possibly inflationary. The ECRI industrial price index, which is normally slow moving, rose to 120.49% from the prior week’s level of 117.42%.

Markets are anticipating problems, either from Tariffs or possibly Iran. Sixty-two percent of the stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) rose last week, while only fifty-three percent rose on the NASDAQ. The NASDAQ trades more tech stocks and the shares of younger companies. Thus, the junior exchange is likely to react more than the “Big Board” to news events. Retail investors, when not gambling, are more active on the junior market. One possible measure of this is the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) sample survey, which reported 49.5% bullish for the next six months, up from 42.5% the prior week. What may be more significant is the 28.2% that were bearish. Many professional traders believe “the public” is wrong at turning points.

The Davos meeting begins Tuesday, with many political and economic leaders present and chatting. One doesn’t know what will be discussed and how meaningful the meetings will be.

Keep us Informed as to any Changes in Your Views.

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Mike Lipper's Blog: How Much Longer Can We Avoid Thinking About the Long-Term? - Weekly Blog # 923

Mike Lipper's Blog: Data May Be Signaling Change - Weekly Blog # 922

Mike Lipper's Blog: Investment Time Horizon Should Pick How You Measure the Results - Weekly Blog # 921

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How Much Longer Can We Avoid Thinking About the Long-Term? - Weekly Blog # 923

Mike Lipper’s Monday Morning Musings

How Much Longer Can We Avoid

Thinking About the Long-Term?

Editors: Frank Harrison 1997-2018, Hylton Phillips-Page 2018

First Week 2026

Using the performance of equity mutual funds, it was a great week with average gains of more than +2%. If repeated for each week of the year it would produce returns of over 100%. Even the value of the US dollar rose a bit during the week. That was the delusional news! What’s even worse, the average commodity fund invested in gold and other precious metals rose +4.02%. Funds owning stocks of gold and other precious metal mining companies gained +5.32% on average through Thursday. The latter can suffer mining risks, labor strikes, and raised taxes. Historically, gold has been a hedge against the value of a currency, particularly the US dollar. There is also a small industrial market for gold in the electronics market, which might be in the region of $1,000 an ounce. How much demand for gold jewelry is really demand for a convenient way to pass on its monetary value? I don’t know. Part of the demand for gold as a use in the crypto world is not known by me. All told, I suspect over half of the value of gold is as a substitute for the US dollar.

What Is The Value Of The US dollar?

Something is worth what someone is willing to pay for it. Currently, it appears to be about $0.99 cents, up from $0.96 cents. However, the critical question is its worth in the future. That appears to be what someone is willing to pay for it, delivered today or on a specific date and quantity in the future.

According to a paper prepared by the National Bureau of Economic Research. Twenty-five years ago, people believed the US fiscal budget looking forward 10 years would be $5.9 Billion, with all public debt paid off by 2006. The readers of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act now project a 2054 debt to GDP ratio of 199%, incorporating temporary provisions. Net interest payments would rise to 6.3% from 3.2% today. (I don’t know how to impact these numbers with the increase in gambling. In first 11 months of 2025, total sports gambling in New Jersey was $67 Billion. The rise of non-securities backed gambling, particularly among the young, appears to be on the rise.)

Why Should We Care?

Even with the increase in retail securities markets investing, institutional investors set the prices of fixed income securities and many large-cap stocks. Most money invested through 401k and similar retirement accounts are invested in mutual funds or SMAs. Insurance companies, endowments, and other institutional investors may increase their investment in foreign securities, which will impact domestic stock prices. Both domestic and foreign controlled investors may shift some of their investment focus if the dollar becomes weaker.

Leaders Increasingly Think Globally

Foreign leaders have increasingly thought globally in determining their strategies. Our main adversaries, China, Russia, and North Korea are strategists, whereas the US tends to view the world as tacticians through domestic glasses and the next election time scale. Luckily, many of our domestic commercial leaders are increasingly thinking strategically.

Strategies Going Forward

Going forward, we should recognize that the world is changing at a rapid rate and we need to change with it. Old rules and strategies will change. We must be careful.

Please share your thoughts.

Did you miss my blog last week? Click here to read.

Mike Lipper's Blog: Data May Be Signaling Change - Weekly Blog # 922

Mike Lipper's Blog: Investment Time Horizon Should Pick How You Measure the Results - Weekly Blog # 921

Mike Lipper's Blog: Tis the Season of Joy & Reflection - Weekly Blog # 920

Did someone forward you this blog?

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A. Michael Lipper, CFA

Contact author for limited redistribution permission.