Documentary filmmakers and journalists--are you tired of election coverage? Well help us change it. Current TV is trying to change the focus of media coverage to the issues, not the candidates. So we're asking anyone who can to produce a...
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Message from Current TV

Documentary filmmakers and journalists--are you tired of election coverage?

Well help us change it. Current TV is trying to change the focus of media coverage to the issues, not the candidates. So we're asking anyone who can to produce a mini-documentary (3-7 minutes long) about a major election issue--healthcare, economy, education, etc. Tell us a fair, accurate story about how one of these issues affects you or your community.

If you upload your piece to our website by Dec. 15th, you'll be considered to join the Current TV team at the New Hampshire primaries, as a paid producer on the ground! And Current TV could buy your piece to air on our international cable channel.

So get in touch with us at currenttvjournalism@gmail.com and get those cameras rolling!"

    


SMARTCROWD Update: Election '08

Here's our latest ratings for Sunday, November 11th, 2007.

The SMARTCROWD consensus index ratings are based on prices at the following prediction markets:

Iowa Electronic Markets,

Inkling Markets,

FT Predict; and

Newsfutures.

SMARTCROWD consensus index ratings, based on prices on November 11th, and the relevant spreads (spreads explained) are as follows.

Leading Democrats

08 DEM Clinton 72.15% +, spread 4.34 points

08 DEM Obama 15.86% -, spread 4.60 points

08 DEM Edwards 5.66% -, spread 2.15 points

Leading Republicans

08 GOP Giuliani 42.87% +, spread 4.25 points

08 GOP Romney 32.15% +, spread 1.96 points

08 GOP Thompson (F) 7.49% -, spread 4.10 points

08 GOP McCain 7.85% +, spread 5.21 points

Party for President

08 GOP President 37.68% -, spread 3.56 points

08 DEM President 62.15% +, spread 1.41 points

Analytics

We're still kicking around some ideas for new analytics/metrics that measure prediction markets, poll data and news. We hope to release this before year end, assuming we are confident that the outputs add value and increase the breadth, depth and richness of what makes up the SMARTCROWD consensus index. Currently the index is calculated solely from prediction market data.

News

There's been some very significant changes in prediction market ratings since October 7th, when we last reported our ratings. The most significant changes are the extent to which Hillary Clinton has further consolidated her lead, from 65.76% to 72.15%, and the extent to which Fred Thompson has slipped in the prediction market ratings, from 21.84% to 7.49%. Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney have improved their ratings from 37.17% to 42.87% and 25.62% to 32.15% respectively.

Here's some interesting articles that give a snapshot of what's happening in the nomination races.

Who will take on Hillary?, The Economist, November 1st, 2007
Poll: A year before '08 election, public's theme is discontent, ABC News, November 4th, 2007
Clinton on debate: 'I wasn't at my best', CNN Political Ticker, November 6th, 2007
Ahead of the boys. A whiff of hope for Hillary Clinton's rivals. The Economist, November 7th, 2007
How Much Did Thompson's Abortion Comments Hurt Him?, NRO, November 8th, 2007
Time running short for Obama, AFP, November 10th
Democrats blitz Iowa to rev up support, AP, November 11th, 2007
Republicans 2008: Giuliani 33%, McCain 16%, Angus Reid Global Monitor, November 11th, 2007
Huckabee, Paul discount front-runners, United Press International, November 11th, 2007

Our daily newsclip page has a broad list of relevant articles.

For latest news, click <DEM news> and <GOP news>

Other news

There was one piece of news from Google that we're very excited about. It looks as if Google may soon aggregate prediction market data in the same way that it augments relevant articles with stock quotes and links. This will be very powerful and will significantly increase the awareness of prediction markets. Go Google! We'll obviously have to start focusing on more meaningful metrics!

This will be a great development. Awareness of prediction markets has progressively increased over the past 6-12 months, & especially since elements of established media have started to take interest.

That's it for this time.

From the crew at SMARTCROWD

    


SMARTCROWD Update: Election '08

Here's our latest ratings for Sunday, October 7th, 2007.

The SMARTCROWD consensus index ratings are based on prices at the following prediction markets:

Iowa Electronic Markets,

Inkling Markets,

FT Predict; and

Newsfutures.

SMARTCROWD consensus index ratings, based on prices on October 7th:

Leading Democrats

08 DEM Clinton 65.76% -

08 DEM Obama 17.96% -

08 DEM Edwards 5.95% -

Leading Republicans

08 GOP Giuliani 37.17% +

08 GOP Romney 25.62% +

08 GOP Thompson (F) 21.84% -

08 GOP McCain 7.12% +

Party for President

08 GOP President 38.46% -

08 DEM President 61.13% +

Comparing Polls and Prediction Market data?

Slide1_5


Here's a new chart comparing poll data against prediction market data for both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama over a 3+ month period.

Polling data, which is based on publicly information available at Angus Reid Global Monitor, is usually generated from the question "who will you vote for?" As such, polling is a % measurement of how respondents will vote, one way or another.

The prediction market (PM) data, by stark contrast, is generated from traders who are each trying to answer the question "who do you think will win (and how certain are you of the outcome, based on a scale of 1-100)?"

There are, of course, no surprises here in terms of leader or trailer. What is more interesting though is the correlation betwen poll data and PM data over time. We'll be taking a closer look at this over the coming months.

Other important data

Clearly, the media influences sentiment which in turn generates price changes in prediction markets. We'll be taking a closer look at this third data set, comparing it against poll data and PM data, over the coming months, to look for different correlations.

As a teaser, we took a look at a couple of new sources of data. First, take a look at Wonkosphere which measures "buzz" in the blogosphere; good, bad and neutral. According to current data, Hillary Clinton is generating 25% of the buzz across the top 12 candidates, while Obama scores just under 10%. Second, take a look at Hitwise a website that monitors the traffic to different candidates sites. By this measurement, Obama has a clear lead.

Through analysis like this we hope to produce some useful analytics!

Snapshot_20071007_221613_2

Snapshot_20071007_221715_3


News

This weekend the FT ran Obama woos Iowa but Clinton surges, while the Economist ran the line The American presidency is Hillary Clinton's to lose. But that doesn't make her a shoo-in just yet.

Right now, the polls, the prediction markets and the media all seem to be aligned in terms of how the Democratic nomination might unfold.

Next week we'll take a look at the Republican data.

For the latest news on Election '08, click here.

From the crew at SMARTCROWD

    


SMARTCROWD Update: Can anyone catch Hillary? *

Here's our latest ratings for Sunday, September, 23rd, 2007. 

SMARTCROWD consensus index ratings are based on prices at the following prediction markets:

Iowa Electronic Markets,

Inkling Markets,

FT Predict and

Newsfutures.

SMARTCROWD CONSENSUS INDEX

Leading Democrats

08 DEM Clinton 66.0% +

08 DEM Obama 18.77% -

08 DEM Edwards 6.88% -

Leading Republicans

08 GOP Giuliani 35.11% +

08 GOP Romney 25.46% +

08 GOP Thompson (F) 24.68% -

08 GOP McCain 6.5% +

Party for President

08 GOP President 40.16% +

08 DEM President 59.54% +

General

Can anyone catch Hillary? * thanks to Real Clear Politics

Latest 2008 Presidential Election news.

From the crew at SMARTCROWD

    


SMARTCROWD Update: Election '08

The Iowa Straw Poll

Mitt Romney won the Iowa straw poll this weekend with 31.5% of the vote, ahead of second placed Mike Huckabee with 18.1%.

The final result contained a few surprises.

The media naturally spun the outcome in different ways.

The National Public Radio lead with Iowa straw poll yields limited victory for Romney, while Australia's Sydney Morning Herald took a more irreverent view separating the wheat from the chaff. The Boston Herald reported that Romney did not believe his victory was a hollow one.

Time Magazine's What Iowa’s straw poll tells the GOP provides a more in-depth view.

While Romney was widely expected to win in Iowa, Mike Huckabee's second place is attracting attention, lifting his national profile. According to USA Today Huckabee spent just $58 per vote for 2nd place in Iowa. This is likely to keep him in the campaign for a while yet. His odds of dropping out by December 31st, dropped from 67.5% to 50% at Intrade.

Rudy Giuiani, John McCain and Fred Thompson all skipped Iowa.

McCain instead focused his attention on New Hampshire.

There's speculation that Tommy Thompson may now scrap his Presidential bid following his 6th place showing. While Mr (T) Thompson may be looking for the exit door, there's talk brewing about Newt Gingrich wanting in.

Rudy Giuliani continues to lead the national polls.

Here's how the Angus Reid Global Monitor reported findings on August 12th.

Prediction Markets

According to the prediction markets, Giuliani continues to lead the GOP candidates in this format too.

Giuliani has a SMARTCROWD rating of 31.74%, followed by Fred Thompson on 26.01% and Mitt Romney at 25.18% (trending up), following his victory in Iowa.

John McCain continues to score in the single digits with a rating of 6.27%.

At Intrade, Newt Gingrich is rated at 35.5% (on small volume), suggesting some believe he might actually enter the GOP nomination battle.

Hillary sees off Obama

Slide2_3

In the Democratic nominee markets, Hillary Clinton further extended her lead. She now has a commanding SMARTCROWD rating of 55.65% (and trending up). According to the markets she's the clear favorite to become the Democratic Party's Presidential nominee.

Barack Obama's rating slipped in the same markets; his SMARTCROWD rating is now below 30%, currently standing at 25.27% (trending down). See chart.

John Edwards scored 8.25%

Two's company, three's a crowd

Last week, we wrote about the prospect of (perhaps only a slim chance today), the big 3 contenders for the White House in 2008, being Hillary Clinton, Rudy Giuliani and Michael Bloomberg (if he annouces he's running); all from New York. The New York Times article No, It Wouldn't Happen. Couldn't. No Way considers this prospect in depth.

That's it for this week's coverage.

Interesting times, indeed.


From the crew at SMARTCROWD.

    


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