Some choices seem obvious, while others demand care and insight.
And some offerings are simple, while others have depth and multiple variables.
As you’ve probably guessed, the choices that are simple and obvious tend to do best in the mass market.
Where did you get your cup of coffee this morning? Did you visit a drive through Dutch Bros. or did you use a lever pull at home to pull a shot with beans you roasted and brewed yourself?
Most successful politicians and movements start in the bottom left and move their way toward simple and obvious.
Successful social media platforms race to the top right hand corner, but the most interesting and generative content online is probably not there…
Choose your quadrants carefully.
Sports cars have a tachometer, a gauge showing how close the motor is to melting down.
When the revs enter the red zone, performance is enhanced–for a while. Do it too much or for too long, and you’ll burn out.
In our work, there are two sorts of red zones.
Athletes know that the last 5% of their effort accounts for 100% of their success. The same is true for pianists and any endeavor where we are sorted by elite performance.
But many people work in industries where the last 5% of their effort might account for just 5% of their success. A stockbroker who stays busy cold calling clients late into the night doesn’t receive increasing rewards–they just get a little busier.
The problem with the linear reward curve is obvious–people who are driven to get just a little more repeatedly do just a little more, until they’ve broken everything they said they wanted.
If you’re going into the red zone, be clear about what the outcome is supposed to be.
Two different ways to consider this:
First, in the marketplace, where most people, most of the time, want the thing that most people want. The average one. Exceptional is the exception.
Second, in the committee meeting, where the easiest way forward is to sand off interesting edges, eliminate unknowns and challenge as little as possible.
When you put these together, you see the relentless slide toward banality.
For people who care enough to develop skill and bring bravery to the work, this is a huge opportunity. Not an easy or an obvious one, but perhaps one worth chasing.
If you walk into the Parthenon or paddle at dawn on Joe Lake, it’s easy to feel a sense of wonder.
And waiting in a long line for an important flight can trigger frustration.
But much of the time, our state is automatic.
What’s your default? Satisfied, bitter, anxious, sad, curious, grateful, energized, disappointed, exhausted, eager, bored, hopeful, frustrated, overwhelmed, inspired or nostalgic…
If we can trigger one for six minutes, perhaps we can do it for an hour.
We’re more likely to perform what we rehearse.
When a new technology arrives, it appears unpolished, ill-formed and a bit wonky.
As it gains traction, existing industries and processes begin to be threatened, often before their replacements in the new technology are fully ready.
This is how Napster showed up for the music business, or email for faxes, or television for radio. Same with online shopping, smart phones and online learning.
The pointy part is the precipice–a shard where change is inevitable, but also feels fraught. The biggest gap between fear and hope. This is when foreboding in the existing industries begins to peak, and it’s not clear that the new tech is going to be able to absorb the energy, investment and attention of folks who can feel the old ways slipping away.
Right now, we’re seeing the beginning of that phase for AI.
People are either concerned about the future of their old ways, or in denial and ignoring what’s going on around them.
I’ve never seen a smooth handoff between technology regimes, and I’m not expecting one now. Not-smooth doesn’t mean it’s not going to happen, though.
Organizations and leaders can’t wait until the next steps are obvious and safe. At that point, it’s too late.
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